Mathematical Modeling of Human Papillomavirus in College "Hook-up Culture"

Abstract

Infection with human papillomavirus (HPV) has been known to cause genital warts, cervical and other cancers, and respiratory papillomatosis. It is the most common sexually transmitted infection (STI) affecting nearly all sexually active individuals at some point in their life. While the effects of HPV and cervical cancer has been modeled before, none of the models consider the effect of populations with different sexual behavior. Concerns about college “hook-up culture” and transmission of STIs has led to the question of how increased numbers of sexual partners may influence the rate of cervical cancer. It is known that two strains, HPV 16 and 18, cause about 70% of all cervical cancers. Thus, it is predicted that decreased transmission of these two strains will lead to decreased incidence of cervical cancer. Here we model a non-vaccinated heterosexual population to determine how different proportions of high and low contact individuals leads to varied prevalence of cervical cancer after 30 years.