Indicators of Deterrence Success.
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My paper seeks to determine the factors explaining the likelihood of successful deterrence. I form a set of hypothesis based on four game-theoretical models that incorporate factors of resolve and soft power. Based on these models, I hypothesize that challenger resolve will have a negative effect on deterrence success and that defending state resolve and the use of soft power will have no effect. The results of binary logistic regression models indicate that there is an overall negative relationship between challenger resolve and deterrence success, a potentially positive relationship between defender resolve and deterrence success, and no statistically significant relationship between soft power and deterrence success.
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